How far is the initial restart of the 2000 trillion reverse repo operation?
Come to Sina University of Finance and listen to Yang Delong’s “20 Macro Data That Must Be Understand” for stock trading, understand the actual value of macro data on the 18th, you can restart the 200 billion reverse repurchase operation and fully realize the reverse repurchase, of which 14 daysInterest rate for reverse repo operation 2.
65%, 5 basis points lower than the previous operation.
This is the first time that the 1-year MLF and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate have been lowered.
Not only that, a new round of RRR cuts may already be brewing, and a cut in interest rates for open market operations in the future can still be expected.
The policy side is warm and windy. Is 3000 points stable this time?
At the close of the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.
08% reported 3020.
The 14-day reverse repurchase rate fell in the morning on the 18th. The extension announcement stated that 200 billion reverse repurchase operations were conducted by way of interest rate bidding, including 50 billion 7-day reverse repurchases and 150 billion US dollars 14-day reverse repurchases.
Among them, the 14-day reverse repo rate is 2.
65%, 5 basis points lower than the previous operation; 7-day reverse repurchase rate is 2.
50%, same as the previous operation.
The minimum 14-day reverse repurchase operation every year is September 27, and the interest rate is 2.
The latest decline in the 14-day reverse repo rate occurred on February 2, 2016, from 2.
7% interest rate 2.
Source: The official website of the People’s Bank of China needs to point out that the 14-day reverse repurchase rate decline is not a new round of “open market interest rate cuts” but is consistent with the previous MLF interest rate and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate declineFollow-up.
On November 5, the one-year MLF operating interest rate was reduced by 5 basis points to 3.
25%; On November 18, the 7-day reverse repo operation rate was lowered by 5 basis points to 2.
5%; On December 18, the 14-day reverse repo operation rate was reduced by 5 basis points to 2.
So far, the open market operating interest rate has generally fallen by 5 basis points.
It can be expected that if the reverse repurchase tools with other periods such as 28 days are gradually implemented, the interest rate will also be adjusted by the same amount.
The launch of the multi-year liquidity curtain opened this operation. This is the first time that the open market reverse repo operation has been released in the past 21 trading days.
Since November 19, the reverse repurchase operation has been suspended for 20 consecutive working days, and the duration has set a record since this year, which reflects that the market capital is relatively loose.
However, from the beginning of the week, the sequel to the excessive MLF expired gradually, to the restart and the large-scale reverse repurchase operation, the announcement of the multi-year liquidity investment curtain has basically been opened.
The data shows that the scale of the medium-term reverse repo operation hit a new high since October 24.
Since no budget reverse repurchase expired today, all of them achieved net investment, and the net investment volume reached a new high in a month.
In particular, the 14-day reverse repurchase operation is much larger than the 7-day reverse repurchase, indicating that expansion is easier to invest in multi-year funds and meet the needs of the final institution for multi-year liquidity.
Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst of Minsheng Securities, is approaching the end of the year, and the inter-bank inter-year capital demand is increasing. About 7 days of reverse repurchase, the current 14-day reverse repurchase can better meet the inter-year inter-bank demand.
With reference to historical experience, the interest rate fluctuations of funds around New Year’s Day are usually relatively high, and it is expected that in the future expansion will continue to carry out a moderate scale reverse repo operation to “care” the capital.
The term characteristics of the preliminary reverse repo operation of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center have shown that the expected “care” market liquidity is stable and multi-year.
The first release, while restarting the reverse repurchase net investment of US $ 200 billion in liquidity, lowered the inter-year capital interest rate and avoided structural tensions at the end of the year as much as possible.
At present, it is expected that before the end of the year’s large fiscal expenditures, tools such as open market reverse repurchase will continue to be used to meet the organization’s reasonable demand for liquidity. Multi-year funds will be the focus of investment.open.
Is it about to be lowered?
That being said, a new round of RRR cuts may already be on the way.
Too many analysts believe that the next RRR cut operation is more likely to occur in January next year than at the end of this year, but considering that it takes a certain time from announcement to implementation, it is not ruled out that the RRR cut policy will be announced at the end of this year. First of all, although the final funding is easy to tighten, due to large fiscal 杭州桑拿 expenditures, liquidity will often increase in the long term, and capital shortages are more short-term and structural. It is not necessary to use the reserve rate tool.
In general, the recent economic and financial data are picking up, and a short-term economic bottom may have appeared. Monetary policy can be viewed while walking, leaving some room.
Although the current monetary policy focuses on stable growth, tasks such as stabilizing the currency value, preventing expected expansion, and structural deleveraging also need to be balanced. At the same time, the relationship between the current and future needs to be balanced and the space for normal monetary policy cherished.
Finally, in January next year, the situation will be more complicated, and the conditions for implementing the RRR cut will be more adequate.
First, the Spring Festival next year is earlier than before, and there is a large amount of cash before the holiday; Second, January is the traditional month of large expenditures; Third, the beginning of the year is the time when credit is distributed and concentrated; Fourth, the special debt quota is issued in advance, which meansThe issuance of temporary local debt will begin early next year.
These and other types indicate that the demand for funds will be large in January next year.
At that time, gradually reducing the quota can not only protect the cross-section of funds, but also help the initial credit issuance, but also cooperate with the local debt issuance, which can be described as doing more.
Will the open market “cut interest rates”?
In the future, the open market operation interest rate, especially the MLF interest rate, must be reduced.
Although the MLF operating interest rate continued to stabilize in December, the changes in policy interest rates still attracted much attention.
In August this year, the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) reform was linked to the MLF interest rate, consolidating the MLF interest rate as an important policy interest rate indicator.
At the beginning of November, the one-year MLF interest rate was cut by 5 basis points, the first reduction in more than three years, but the three operations have remained stable since then.
Yuekai Securities’ fixed income research team has not changed its MLF operating interest rate this month. It not only considers saving the “bullet” for the next cost reduction, but also improves the short-term fundamentals and risk improvement, which leads to the interpretation of more realistic factors.
Considering that the Central Economic Work Conference noticed that the “reduction of social financing costs” will continue, we will continue to motivate the next year to actively lower the MLF rate to drive LPR downward.
Huatai Securities’s fixed income research team will continue to maintain flexible monetary policy in 2020. Reducing costs is still an important task. It is expected that the MLF will be replaced at a timely time. The open market interest rate is expected to continue to decrease slowly, and the LPR formation mechanism will continue to improve.
Editing: Li Ruoyu Yawenhui